Welcome to Rogue Systems Recon!
This publication is about applying systems theory and science to address real-world global policy problems - Putin’s genocidal assault on Ukraine first and foremost. If the free world can’t win there, it’s done for.
Policy boils down to the application of scarce resources to achieve a defined end. Systems are networks of interdependent actors. Policy systems analysis is an applied science devoted to understanding how the struggle between competing interests plays out. It enables concerted efforts to steer complex situations towards a better outcome.
War is always a struggle between competing policy systems, the extreme stakes generating conditions that produce a natural laboratory for understanding human behavior. If a scientific insight works on the battlefield, it’s probably reliable in most other contexts, which is why major wars tend to spawn rapid technological and social change.
One core mission of Rogue Systems Recon is exploring these ideas using as much non-technical language as possible. Another is to identify dangerous errors in conventional thinking about certain topics, warfare among them, that dominate public discussions. A third, of course, is to do what little someone on the other side of the world from the fighting can to support Ukraine’s defenders. And a new fourth mission is taking the lessons learned and using them to develop a new global security institution: Earth Forces.
It is in Ukraine that the overall trajectory of global affairs over the next few decades will be locked in. Down one glide path is a relatively soft landing for most countries that could even herald a new era of global cooperation and productive technological development. Another takes the planet into what folks in the last century would have classified as something between a Third World War and a simple descent into mutually destructive chaos.
What happens in Ukraine will serve as the vital signal that the sort of people actively setting the planet on fire these days will rely on to choose their next steps. A repeat of the twentieth century’s horrific first half is entirely possible. So is a rapid revival of the hopeful spirit that animated the years after the end of the Cold War. Victory in Ukraine is a prerequisite to unlocking the second, far happier path.
For more about the raw science powering Rogue Systems Recon, here’s a link to a brief (ish) overview that I periodically update to enhance readability and topic coverage.
Publishing weekly, usually on Wednesdays, Rogue Systems Recon covers key trends on the various fronts in Ukraine using open-source data, focusing on the operational and strategic levels. Additional sections cover geopolitical developments or go deeper into science matters.
Fair warning: I frequently indulge in commentary that tends to be snarky and quite disrespectful towards established authority that has not adequately proven itself. The purpose, however, is the same as any good drill sergeant’s: motivate improvement to enhance survival odds.
Weekly Rogue Systems Recon posts are and will always remain free to all. Feel free to share passages and images with others - attribution is always appreciated. However, most maps are derived from other sources, with my own markups intended to help convey a sense of action and combatant intent over time. I strongly encourage readers to support DeepState Map, Ukraine Daily Update by Andrew Perpetua, Ukraine Control Map, Geoconfirmed.org, and Liveuamap. Militaryland.net is a fantastic source for understanding organization changes in Ukraine’s forces. Ukrinform, Ukrainska Pravda, New Voice of Ukraine, United24, Kyiv Post, Militarnyi, and Defense Express are my go-to English-language media sources from Ukraine. Check out my recommendations section for Substack publications worth reading, too.
Starting in August of 2025, I’ll be opening up a new subscriber-only subsection of Rogue Systems Recon named Earth Forces Bulletin. In short, it is the start of something pointlessly ambitious: an independent global security organization capable of protecting people against all hazards, natural or social. Subscribers will support both Rogue Systems Recon and the early larval phase of what be termed a decentralized hive mind ruled by a common purpose.
Bio
Who writes this blog? Andrew Tanner - freelance policy systems analyst and independent author of nine science fiction novels spread across two series: Bringing Ragnarok and Bivrost Nine, with the lead books of both hitting category bestseller level on Amazon.
I’m a rural dude from Pacific America; grew up in far-northern California, but have spent most of my adult life in western Oregon with my wife and our cats and dogs. A couple decades back I earned a bachelors degree in political science from UC Berkeley. Later in life I earned masters degrees in water resources management as well as public policy from Oregon State University, co-publishing multivariate statistical analysis from my public policy masters project in a well-regarded peer-reviewed journal, World Development, that has been cited several dozen times. On the resource management side, my focus was on using satellite remote sensing to track landscape change in the Upper Klamath Basin, which straddles the California-Oregon border. Recently, I was gratified to see that a basic recommendation of my masters thesis - restore wetlands to store water - was in fact adopted (indirectly, I’m sure) as part of a major environmental restoration effort.
After completing all required coursework for a doctoral program in geography and environmental sciences, and having a research proposal focused on developing a decision support system to support rural renewable energy planning approved by my doctoral committee, I ultimately decided that the academic rat race wasn’t for me. Going freelance, I contributed to several research and writing projects before Putin’s all-out assault on Ukraine and independent fiction publishing absorbed nearly all of my energy.
Before grad school, I worked as an analyst in both the public and private sectors, offering substantial insight into how state government and Silicon Valley startups operate. My lifetime interest in military affairs stems both from having a lot of veterans in my family - father, both grandfathers, and one grandmother were all in uniform, enlisted side - and my own brief service on active duty as a cavalry scout in the United States Army.
Enlisting a few days after graduating from UC Berkeley - almost twenty years ago now - I found myself transitioning from courses taught by esteemed scholars to learning the job of being a combat soldier from drill sergeants fresh back from Iraq. I soon learned that international relations looks very different when you stand to be at the tip of the spear. I never deployed abroad, though: my chain of command convinced me to go officer after less than a year. I agreed, accepting an honorable discharge in order to enter an ROTC program, the plan being to get into flying helicopters. A full military career was not to be, though, as a knee injury sustained during physical fitness training while on active duty became a chronic problem that lingers to this day.
Still, the experience left me with a permanent respect for anyone who wears their country’s uniform - and respects basic human decency, without which there’s little point in fighting for anything at all. Much of my fiction is dedicated to the idea that veterans - something I don’t technically consider myself to be, as nearly everyone I knew in uniform except me wound up fighting in Iraq, some never returning home - hold a unique position in this world. They are among the few who understand this reality for what it truly is, stripped bare of all illusions.
The good news is that people, deep down, mostly want to work in teams to get by. The bad is that some teams figure out that exploitation, domination, and other forms of violence are viable strategies, for a time. There can be no lasting peace without security against those who choose to violate the rights of others. Fortunately, as Ukrainians across their embattled country have proven for years, by default most people will stand up and do what they can to resist an unjust attack.
Rogue Systems Recon aims to offer information and insights to those whose job it is to enforce this simple policy. Starting with, but never limited to, Ukraine.
If you’d like to get in touch with questions or to talk about contracting for some custom policy systems analysis, send a message to roguesystemsrecon@gmail.com. Thanks for reading, and stay safe out there!
- Andrew Tanner
P.S. Just because I loved this cat so much, here’s a picture of the deeper spiritual motivation behind the blog. Cow cat says Putin is a loser forever. Slava Ukraini! Heroiam Slava!
