The beginning of the end of the Ukraine War is finally in sight: Ukraine's military reboot, deep strike campaign, and battlefield networks are too efficient for Moscow's meat tactics to beat.
Terrific readout as usual, with additional hope for an early end to this madness. Your new analysis will surely be borne out by events as has happened in the past. Well done.
"it does almost look like those who thought Wagner’s revolt an FSB operation gone wrong were onto something"
🤔
"from a policy perspective, losing ten thousand lives every year for two or three or even more to come is worse than losing ten thousand over the next three months if that sacrifice brings an end to the thing. A short-term quadrupling of the casualty rate in exchange for a shot at dropping to near zero not long after is a bitter choice to have to make."
The problem is it's not an exact choice is it. There's a risk that ten thousand casualties are taken in three months AND the war continues for years to come.. Thinking back to the 2023 offensive, I wonder if there's very little appetite amongst Ukrainians for offensive casualties, compared with acceptance of defensive attrition....
This is true. That's the bad-bad quadrant. But there's always risk, no matter what. So you shoot for the good-good outcome and hedge against bad-bad, expecting to get a mix. So long as the mix cases are tilted in your favor, best you can do.
Terrific readout as usual, with additional hope for an early end to this madness. Your new analysis will surely be borne out by events as has happened in the past. Well done.
"it does almost look like those who thought Wagner’s revolt an FSB operation gone wrong were onto something"
🤔
"from a policy perspective, losing ten thousand lives every year for two or three or even more to come is worse than losing ten thousand over the next three months if that sacrifice brings an end to the thing. A short-term quadrupling of the casualty rate in exchange for a shot at dropping to near zero not long after is a bitter choice to have to make."
The problem is it's not an exact choice is it. There's a risk that ten thousand casualties are taken in three months AND the war continues for years to come.. Thinking back to the 2023 offensive, I wonder if there's very little appetite amongst Ukrainians for offensive casualties, compared with acceptance of defensive attrition....
This is true. That's the bad-bad quadrant. But there's always risk, no matter what. So you shoot for the good-good outcome and hedge against bad-bad, expecting to get a mix. So long as the mix cases are tilted in your favor, best you can do.