Strategy involves tradeoffs, something the present crop of leaders in Washington, D.C. apparently refuse to accept - the lasting detriment of US national security. Jake Sullivan's recent piece in Foreign Affairs serves as a case study in the utter absence of strategic competence in American leadership circles. The USA has been hollowed out by several generations of similarly vapid Ivy league careerists who think the USA can do all the things everywhere all at once. Here's a counter, powered by systems theory - real science, not whatever Biden's wretched natsec adviser picked up in debate club.
Really good summary of the present state of things. I’ve been thinking about these problems, and don’t see an easy way out of them. I think the most telling statement in the NY’er was near the end where it’s said the Biden-Sullivan problem is that they are in a war they can’t afford to win or lose. Incredibly, they’re invested in keeping Putin in power, Russia a cohesive state. As you say, still pretending the world is still in 1965.
Meritocracy? Of course we are. The Best and the Brightest are ever busy rationalizing to order for whatever appears politically expedient over the next election cycle. This is only possible with the right kind of people. People like, frankly, us. People who know their places in the baboon troop, defer to their betters, connive with their peers, and harass the lower ranking. Recruitment and promotion is too important to be left to objective criteria. See where the Chinese civil service exam system worked out. Much better is the outsourced vetting system that distributes fitness judgments over a loose network. We’re America, so we’ve scaled the Eton/Harrow Oxbridge model to continental scale.
I don't know, dude. The way you've written this article makes it seem like you think America will collapse in a smoldering ruin in the next few years because Jake Sullivan is a weenie.
If you're going to make dramatic claims about the future of the US you need to be more specific about the chain of events that you envision, and focus less on Sullivan as a synecdoche of your contempt. We're going to have an election next year where fascists are trying to get on the ballot -- start there.
I think you're missing crucial elements of American strength. Our country has scale that only the EU, China, India and maybe some up-and-coming countries like Nigeria or Indonesia have a chance to match. We are unrivaled at absorbing and transforming elements from other cultures and immigrants from other countries. Americans are *original* in a way that other cultures just aren't, at least at this moment in history, and this originality is not only necessary for the humans to thrive worldwide in the coming century, but is essential to our ability to project power internationally.
There are some selective omissions in your "systems" view too. For example, the US economy has outperformed every other large economy in the world since the pandemic, and inequality has actually decreased in the last few years. Maybe the Biden team and the DOD could have prioritized evacuating more Afghanis during the withdrawal -- but how would that have changed our fundamental strategic disposition? What is the strategic and political benefit of not aligning ourselves with Israel at this moment? Or just ignoring the situation? Yes, they should have provided ATACMS and F-16s sooner, but if Trump wins next year and withdraws from NATO, how will that be better for Ukraine?
Exaggerating and personalizing doesn't make your argument stronger, or provide better evidence for it, and you're not adding these touches in service of literary flair. Vibes are not insights. Your article would be more informative if you focused on specifics rather than invective.
Wonderful and thought provoking. I think another advantage/power is our isolated geography in North America, our food production ability, our vast resources. Our geography gives us time to sort out our problems, for example, without being invaded.
I completely agree about aid to Ukraine. We need to give them all they need to expel Russia.
I think we also need to rapidly begin shoring up our defense production capabilities, especially munitions.
I whole-heartedly support your argument for a coherent strategy and focus. However, I don’t think we should abandon Israel.
Starting to act on genuine moral principles would be a huge step forward too.
Thank you for writing such a thought provoking article.
Really good summary of the present state of things. I’ve been thinking about these problems, and don’t see an easy way out of them. I think the most telling statement in the NY’er was near the end where it’s said the Biden-Sullivan problem is that they are in a war they can’t afford to win or lose. Incredibly, they’re invested in keeping Putin in power, Russia a cohesive state. As you say, still pretending the world is still in 1965.
Meritocracy? Of course we are. The Best and the Brightest are ever busy rationalizing to order for whatever appears politically expedient over the next election cycle. This is only possible with the right kind of people. People like, frankly, us. People who know their places in the baboon troop, defer to their betters, connive with their peers, and harass the lower ranking. Recruitment and promotion is too important to be left to objective criteria. See where the Chinese civil service exam system worked out. Much better is the outsourced vetting system that distributes fitness judgments over a loose network. We’re America, so we’ve scaled the Eton/Harrow Oxbridge model to continental scale.
I don't know, dude. The way you've written this article makes it seem like you think America will collapse in a smoldering ruin in the next few years because Jake Sullivan is a weenie.
If you're going to make dramatic claims about the future of the US you need to be more specific about the chain of events that you envision, and focus less on Sullivan as a synecdoche of your contempt. We're going to have an election next year where fascists are trying to get on the ballot -- start there.
I think you're missing crucial elements of American strength. Our country has scale that only the EU, China, India and maybe some up-and-coming countries like Nigeria or Indonesia have a chance to match. We are unrivaled at absorbing and transforming elements from other cultures and immigrants from other countries. Americans are *original* in a way that other cultures just aren't, at least at this moment in history, and this originality is not only necessary for the humans to thrive worldwide in the coming century, but is essential to our ability to project power internationally.
There are some selective omissions in your "systems" view too. For example, the US economy has outperformed every other large economy in the world since the pandemic, and inequality has actually decreased in the last few years. Maybe the Biden team and the DOD could have prioritized evacuating more Afghanis during the withdrawal -- but how would that have changed our fundamental strategic disposition? What is the strategic and political benefit of not aligning ourselves with Israel at this moment? Or just ignoring the situation? Yes, they should have provided ATACMS and F-16s sooner, but if Trump wins next year and withdraws from NATO, how will that be better for Ukraine?
Exaggerating and personalizing doesn't make your argument stronger, or provide better evidence for it, and you're not adding these touches in service of literary flair. Vibes are not insights. Your article would be more informative if you focused on specifics rather than invective.
Wonderful and thought provoking. I think another advantage/power is our isolated geography in North America, our food production ability, our vast resources. Our geography gives us time to sort out our problems, for example, without being invaded.
I completely agree about aid to Ukraine. We need to give them all they need to expel Russia.
I think we also need to rapidly begin shoring up our defense production capabilities, especially munitions.
I whole-heartedly support your argument for a coherent strategy and focus. However, I don’t think we should abandon Israel.
Starting to act on genuine moral principles would be a huge step forward too.
Thank you for writing such a thought provoking article.